Optimism vs. pessimism: Geopolitics of Istanbul track Expert views on Russia-Ukraine talks

The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held in Istanbul on June 2 have so far yielded no breakthrough results. This, in turn, opens the door to various interpretations. For instance, pessimistic ones suggest that Russia and Ukraine will reach no agreement because their positions are fundamentally different and neither side is willing to compromise — even with the active involvement of U.S. President Donald Trump. On the other hand, there are more optimistic views, which hold that, although progress is slow and incremental, both parties are moving toward peace — a process that, by its nature, cannot be swift.

Turkish President Erdoğan expressed optimism, calling the outcome of the June 2 negotiations “remarkable.” In contrast, U.S. President Trump, according to international media reports, stated that he is losing the last shreds of patience.

To explore the core differences between the parties’ positions, the prospects for compromise and concrete agreements, and whether the Istanbul negotiation track has a real chance of success, a Caliber.Az correspondent spoke with political analysts from both Russia and Ukraine.

Stanislav Pritchin, a Russian political analyst, PhD in History, and head of the Central Asia sector at the IMEMO RAS (Moscow), believes the situation has become quite contradictory: on the eve of the Istanbul talks, Ukraine launched a massive strike on civilian infrastructure in Russia, including an attack on two passenger trains, which resulted in casualties.

“Objectively, this can be seen as an attempt by the Ukrainian side to provoke an emotional response from Russia and derail the negotiations. However, the Russian delegation still arrived in Istanbul, and the talks did take place.

Russia agreed, unilaterally, to return the remains of 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers and officers, and prisoner exchange issues were also resolved. All of this is extremely important in terms of establishing the first elements of trust. For now, the level of contact only allows for progress on humanitarian issues.

The Russian delegation remains open to negotiations and engages on those matters where the Ukrainian side shows willingness and initiative. Overall, negotiations are a difficult process when the sides hold mutually exclusive positions. That’s why we are seeing progress only in areas where joint work is possible.

On broader, strategic issues, as we can see, it is still extremely difficult to find common ground. As a result, the situation continues to unfold along the same lines — military operations persist, and no ceasefire agreement has yet been reached,” the political analyst noted.

When asked why it is so difficult to arrange a meeting between the two leaders, Stanislav Pritchin explained that one of the reasons is that Moscow no longer considers Volodymyr Zelenskyy a legitimate head of state, and therefore sees no point in meeting with him.

“The objective situation is as follows: since May 2024, when Zelenskyy’s presidential term officially ended, he has refused to hold elections, citing martial law rhetoric to extend his mandate as head of state. That’s the first issue.

Secondly, the Ukrainian side has unilaterally introduced legal restrictions on contacts with the Russian Federation — and these restrictions have not yet been lifted. This means that at any moment, Ukraine can revoke any agreements by claiming its domestic laws prohibit such engagements.

The third point is that the Russian leadership has already had contact with Zelenskyy, but it ultimately led nowhere. I’m referring to the implementation of the Minsk agreements within the Normandy Format, which followed Zelenskyy’s rise to power,” Pritchin noted.

According to Ukrainian international affairs expert and Doctor of Political Science, Petro Oleschuk, the main obstacle to the negotiations is that Russia has no genuine interest in ending the war.

“It is clear that President Putin believes he can achieve more through military means than through negotiations. At the same time, he doesn’t want to confront President Trump directly or reject him outright. So, essentially, he is staging a negotiation process just to buy time — time during which the U.S. president, let’s say, refrains from making decisions on sanctions against Russia or military aid to Ukraine. That, from Putin’s perspective, is the main purpose of these talks.

Russia sees it this way: Trump wants negotiations? Fine — we’ll give him negotiations. We’ll stage them, sending a delegation headed by [Vladimir] Medinsky, who will show up with ultimatums completely detached from reality. And to make sure it doesn’t look like a total farce, they’ll occasionally propose a prisoner exchange, just to create the impression that something substantive is taking place,” he said.

For the same reason, Oleschuk believes that President Putin is unwilling to participate in personal meetings with the Ukrainian leader, because that would require actual communication and decision-making rather than just pretending.

“Putin, one way or another, does not want to openly admit that he does not want to end the war. Primarily because such an admission would damage his reputation. Many of Russia’s partners still want the war to end as soon as possible. He also does not want to outright refuse Trump, hoping instead to manipulate his intentions going forward,” the political analyst said.

In his view, for Putin to want to engage in genuine negotiations, something extraordinary would have to happen — for example, a significant military defeat for Russia. According to him, the brilliant special operation by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) that targeted Russia’s strategic aviation is one such form of pressure that could be used to stimulate the negotiation process.

“It turned out to be a harsh lesson: Ukraine proposed a ceasefire, but Russia refused, arguing that its positions would only improve over time. However, in the end, Russia paid the price for its stubbornness. Therefore, a defeat for Russia on the front lines, or in any other area, as well as sanctions that could significantly impact the Russian economy, could become a compelling reason for Moscow to start taking action and seek compromise at the negotiating table. As long as Putin believes he is winning, he will not engage in any negotiations,” Oleschuk concluded.