Armenia between rock and hard place Russian analysts speak to Caliber.Az

It appears that Yerevan is parting ways with its long-favoured foreign policy stance — the strategy of “sitting on two chairs” — by effectively acknowledging a return under the wing of its former suzerain, Moscow. Some analysts note that from now on, it may become more difficult for Pashinyan to maintain his “peacekeeping” game and bluff with Baku.

Will Pashinyan fall into the trap of his own ambitions? Russian political analysts answer this question in a conversation with Caliber.Az.

According to political scientist Vladislav Gerdin, Pashinyan is in for a tough time, as Moscow is likely to show far less leniency toward Yerevan than Brussels did.

“While Europe, with all its elaborate democratic rituals, gave Pashinyan a certain degree of room to manoeuvre, Moscow will clearly be far more demanding. At this stage, it is quite evident that Yerevan, having backtracked, is no longer in a strong bargaining position and is unlikely to dictate or define its own terms in dialogue with Russia—at best, only partially. Even from Lavrov’s remarks during the press conference in the Armenian capital, one can conclude that Moscow is confident in its position of strength and dominance and has no doubts about Yerevan’s loyalty. Not long ago, such a scenario seemed hard to imagine. But it appears that at some point, the Kremlin made it clear to Pashinyan behind closed doors that further flirtation with the West could have negative consequences for Yerevan.

Lavrov's statements included rather stinging and painful truths for the Armenian leadership—diplomatic slaps in the face, so to speak—such as the assertion that ‘Armenia seized Azerbaijani territory using Russian weapons.’ All of this suggests that the tone of conversation with Pashinyan in the Kremlin has become rather blunt. We’ll see how things develop, but there is a growing sense that Yerevan will now struggle to wriggle out of this situation while trying to abandon its Western aspirations and desires,” Gerdin stated.

At the same time, political analyst Dmitry Gradov believes that Armenia will soon have to begin winding down the EU mission on its territory, while its contacts with Brussels and Paris are likely to diminish significantly.

“It seems that EU-Armenia relations are about to enter a more formal phase. There may still be meetings and statements, but they will carry no strategic weight for the European Union and won’t pose any threat to Russia. Macron will pretend to care about Armenia’s political fate, but it will be nothing more than a performance. Pressure on Pashinyan to sign a peace agreement with Baku as soon as possible is quite likely. It is telling that the EU and Paris have also spoken frequently about the need for peace — but the Kremlin is much more invested in this development and is approaching it with greater seriousness.

I also do not rule out that if Trump’s attitude and Washington’s stance towards Moscow turn markedly negative—which is very likely—then Yerevan could find itself on the ‘front line’ of Western pressure. Armenia may face serious sanctions due to its massive ‘grey’ trade turnover with Russia. The situation of being caught between a rock and a hard place, which Yerevan currently experiences, may then reverse in dynamic. But it would be entirely deserved—sooner or later, one has to pay the price for excessive cunning," said Gradov.