Russia’s brutal summer offensive in Ukraine A war of attrition and drones

As The Economist reports, Russia’s relentless push in Ukraine is entering a brutal new phase, marked by fierce battles, innovative drone warfare, and an uncertain strategic future for both sides.

The latest escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict reveals a grim reality: despite months of stalled ceasefire talks, hostilities have intensified dramatically, setting the stage for what Russia hopes will be a decisive summer offensive. Yet, as The Economist details, this campaign is less about rapid territorial gains and more about attritional warfare aimed at breaking Ukrainian morale—a costly gamble by Moscow that underscores both the resilience of Ukrainian defenders and the deepening brutality of the conflict.

Central to the unfolding drama is Kostiantynivka, a small but strategically crucial city on Ukraine’s eastern front. For nearly a decade, it has been a frontline town, but now it faces unprecedented bombardment—up to 25 guided bombs daily—turning it into a symbol of the war’s savage toll on civilians and infrastructure. The city’s police chief grimly describes the impending Russian assault as an “arc of Russian love,” encapsulating the repetitive cycle of destruction and death that has defined Moscow’s military tactics since 2014.

While Kostiantynivka bears the brunt, Russia’s military efforts extend beyond the Donbas to the northeast, near Sumy, where a substantial Russian troop buildup suggests a multi-front strategy. Here, as The Economist reports, Russian forces are making measurable gains against fortifications poorly adapted to counter drone warfare, highlighting the evolving nature of modern combat and Russia’s attempt to exploit Ukrainian weaknesses.

However, the strategic picture remains complex. Russia’s front lines have scarcely shifted in three years, and Ukrainian sources argue the summer offensive is a desperate “last push” designed more for psychological impact than decisive victory. Ukraine’s defenders maintain confidence, citing Russia’s inability to capture Kostiantynivka despite years of attacks and the slow, costly nature of Russian advances conducted in small groups to mitigate drone threats.

Yet caution prevails among Ukrainian ranks. The war has become an intense “drone marathon,” with Russia deploying sophisticated new units such as Rubikon, which uses advanced “mothership” drones launching smaller, cable-controlled drones—a technological leap complicating Ukraine’s air defence. This development is compounded by Russia’s growing cooperation with China, especially in reconnaissance drone technology, raising questions about how external support is shifting the balance on the battlefield.

Meanwhile, Ukraine struggles with shortages of short-range air-defence systems crucial to countering high-altitude, jamming-resistant drones. The evolving drone warfare underscores a critical vulnerability and a shifting dynamic where early Ukrainian technological advantages are being challenged.

The article also highlights a sobering human dimension: Russia’s ability to replenish forces in large numbers, recruiting tens of thousands monthly through financial incentives, contrasts sharply with Ukraine’s more limited manpower, fueling the brutal nature of the conflict. This disparity allows Russia to absorb devastating losses that would cripple less populous countries, prolonging the war and increasing human suffering.

Ultimately, The Economist paints a picture of a war stuck in a grueling stalemate, where neither side can claim clear victory, but Russia’s incremental advances might provide Putin enough symbolic momentum to continue the fight. The potential for a diplomatic opening post-offensive remains uncertain, shadowed by Moscow’s capacity for endurance and Ukraine’s determination.

By Vugar Khalilov